Introduction

As the 2026 Holyrood elections approach, Scottish political parties remain focused on short-term tactics. However, a recent “Scotland 2050” conference in Edinburgh sought to shift attention toward the long-term future of the country. Organisers and participants urged leaders to think beyond immediate election cycles and consider how Scotland might adapt to technological, environmental, and demographic shifts over the next 25 years.

The event drew attention to the transformative impact of technology, particularly artificial intelligence (AI), which is expected to influence everything from transport and healthcare to education and finance. Reflecting on the drastic changes seen since the early days of the internet, experts warned that without forward-thinking policies, Scotland may struggle to remain competitive in a rapidly evolving digital world.

In response, the Scottish government has announced plans to create a national AI agency to oversee integration across public services. However, business leaders highlighted current limitations. Michael McLaughlin of Shoosmiths law firm raised concerns about a “massive skills gap,” revealing that 85% of developers for a recent tech project had to be hired from overseas. He advocated for a focused, collaborative effort between government and industry to invest in priority sectors and skill development.

Mairi Spowage from the Fraser of Allander Institute echoed this sentiment, suggesting Scotland build on its existing strengths—like higher education and financial services—rather than pursue unpredictable trends. She stressed that consistent, long-term policy is key to gaining business trust and investment.

Economic strategy remains a point of divergence among parties. The SNP backs expansive government intervention funded by higher taxes, while the Conservatives favour a smaller state with lower tax burdens. Scottish Labour has proposed a centrist approach, aiming to stimulate economic growth through strategic investment while keeping taxes in check.

AI also featured prominently in discussions about sustainability and infrastructure. Sam Airey of German energy firm EnBW pointed out that Scotland’s surplus energy and cool climate make it a prime location for AI data centres. He proposed that excess heat from these centres could be repurposed to warm homes and businesses, contributing to a greener economy.

First Minister John Swinney supported this vision, emphasising renewable energy as central to Scotland’s economic future. He proposed that an “energy rich Scotland” could translate into wealth for Scots through reduced costs and stronger domestic production. Despite past setbacks on climate targets, the government maintains it is on track to achieve net-zero emissions by 2045—five years ahead of the UK’s target.

Still, the energy transition will be complex. The oil and gas sector remains a major employer, and policies such as banning new petrol and diesel vehicles by 2035 will require major adjustments. The SNP continues to back renewables, while Labour shows growing interest in nuclear power. The Conservatives remain cautious about some green initiatives.

Demographic trends also emerged as a pressing issue. Scotland’s ageing population is expected to place increasing pressure on health and welfare services. By 2047, the over-75 population will significantly outnumber younger age groups, and the social security budget is projected to exceed the UK block grant by £2 billion by 2030. Former social security minister Jeane Freeman acknowledged that successive governments have delayed difficult conversations about care system funding. She called for honest public debate around complex topics like pensions and long-term support.

A final theme was democratic engagement, particularly among youth. A poll by the John Smith Centre revealed that 27% of young people in Scotland would prefer a dictatorship over democracy—an alarming statistic that reflects growing disenchantment amid cost-of-living pressures, insecure jobs, and housing shortages.

While SNP leader John Swinney restated his party’s commitment to Scottish independence as a long-term solution to many of these challenges, no new strategies were introduced at the conference. Nonetheless, the wide-ranging discussions illustrated that Scotland, much like the rest of the world, is on the brink of profound transformation. As the nation prepares for the 2026 elections, the “Scotland 2050” event served as a timely reminder that shaping a prosperous future requires more than just reacting to present crises—it demands visionary, long-term planning.