US Copper Prices Plunge as Trump Excludes Refined Metal from New Tariffs

Copper prices in the United States experienced a sharp decline after President Donald Trump unexpectedly exempted refined copper materials from newly imposed steep tariffs.

On Wednesday, the White House confirmed a 50% tariff would be applied to semi-finished copper goods—such as pipes, wires, fittings, and cables—while refined inputs like copper ores, concentrates, cathodes, and anodes were excluded from the levies. These materials will instead be governed by new domestic sale requirements and export regulations.

Natalie Scott-Gray, a senior metals analyst at StoneX Financial, labeled the exclusion of refined materials and the targeted focus on semi-finished products a “major surprise” to the market.

Following the announcement, copper prices on the New York market dropped roughly 18%, falling to $4.60 per pound. This drop came after prices had previously hit a record near $6 per pound earlier in the month, when Trump first announced copper tariffs without clarifying which products would be affected.

Edward Meir of Marex had anticipated that an exemption for copper cathodes could significantly correct the widening price gap between copper traded in London and the US. Ahead of the announcement, traders had rushed to import copper cathode in large quantities, driving up US prices and creating a premium over global benchmarks.

The broader objective of the Trump administration is to reduce America’s reliance on foreign—especially Chinese—supplies of vital materials like copper. The US currently imports about half of its refined copper and lacks sufficient domestic refining infrastructure, with only two smelters nationwide, operated by Freeport-McMoRan and Rio Tinto.

Historically, the US has exported copper scrap and concentrates, primarily to China for refining. However, under the new directive, Trump is mandating that 25% of high-grade copper scrap remain in the US for domestic use, a move aimed at bolstering the country’s internal copper processing capabilities.

Analysts believe that limiting scrap exports could stimulate growth in US smelting capacity. Alastair Munro of Marex suggested that a full ban on such exports would be especially bullish for the US industry, as it would restrict supply available to Chinese smelters.

Despite the potential benefits to domestic industry, experts warned that building new smelting facilities will take years. Macquarie analysts noted that these delays could lead to a temporary global shortage of copper material, which could in turn drive prices up internationally.

According to Trump’s new order, a growing share of copper input materials—starting at 25% in 2027, increasing to 30% in 2028, and 40% in 2029—must be retained and sold within the United States. The plan also invokes the Defense Production Act to strengthen domestic copper production, while the Commerce Department is tasked with issuing licensing rules for the export of premium copper scrap.

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